Creator
Created
Jun 6, 2023 10:27 AM
Project
Protocol Security
@Irene June 2023
TL;DR: considering current analysis for SDR and no asic (only standard HW like CPU, NVMe, HDD) we have ~1year before windowPoSt breaks.
🌐 Context:
- assuming the current analysis for SDR;
- assuming same or similar HW configuration for PC1 as today (ie, mainly CPU)
- assuming no software improvements for PC1 (after the one shipped by the Supranational team in June 2023)
- ie, Supranational team optimized it about as far as they could take it on the current HW and there is no a plan to continue this work in the short/middle term.
- considering HW (CPU and NVMe) cost trend over time (ie, cheaper CPU cost in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years respect today);
- considerinf HDD cost trend over time
🎯 Goal:
- estimate the windowPoSt security margin in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years (see for the definition of security margin)
📐 Analisys:
Current value [from now to 6 months]
- CS = $0.000896 per 32GiB ($37.6 per TB, 1.25 redundancy)
- RC = $0.00185 (SN Expectation 2023)
- Security Margin = 2.06
See for details
Trend data:
💾 HDD cost trend: given data form the past (see the graph below), we do not expect the cost of HDD to diminish significantly in the next 2 years. We consider a 5% decrease every year.
💻 CPU and NVMe cost trend:
- for CPU, given data form the past (see the graph below), we consider a 40% decrease every year.
- for NVMe (solid state), the decrease seems to be smaller (around ~20% every year), but to be on the safe side, we overall consider a 40% decrease in the HW cost for PC1
Projected values:
- 6 months - 1 year
- CS = 5% less than current = $0.000851
- RC = 40% less than current = $0.00111
- Security Margin = 1.3
- 1 year - 2 years
- CS = 5% less than $0.000851 = $0.00080845
- RC = 40% less than $0.00111= $0.000666
- Security Margin = 0.82 (<1)